DeFiGuruPREDICTION MARKETS
RESEARCH TERMINALObserve. Verify. Model.
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PUBLIC DATAConnecting to Polymarket…
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Prediction Markets

Verified strategy resultsResults not connected
Net profit—
Won—
Lost—
Net profit after fees · settled positionsResolved —
Invest
THE PUBLIC RECORD

Account journal

Observe a public profile. No wallet connection required.

Open a public journal

See the positions. Check the recorded context.

Markets & researchPrices, charts and watchlist
DECISION VIEW
Trader consensus ResearchTrading off

What the strategy
is watching.

Watching markets · No orders sent

  1. 01Find
  2. 02Check
  3. 03Wait
WatchlistResearch candidates
Market data is loading.
Market overview Prices, volume and liquidity
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MARKET MAP

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EVENT LINKS
Crypto Politics Economics Technology
An edge = event membership. Not causation or common ownership.CLICK A NODE ↗

MARKET EXPLORER

EVENT / MARKETOUTCOME 124HLIQUIDITY
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A sample, not all of Polymarket.

LATEST TRADES

DATA API
Select a market
Research toolsOptional
Selected strategy Trader consensus · proposed limits
Planned risk
$100 reference budget$3 max per event1 event at a time$3 daily loss budget$9 drawdown pause

The planned $3 includes fees and an exit reserve. Research only; these are proposed limits. No leverage or averaging down.

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SELECTED STRATEGY

Trader consensus

One event. A small, planned step.

Planned budget $100Planned max per event $3
Trading offReview account

View your balances and positions. Trading is off.

Explore traders ↗
Strategy details
90 days of history100 resolved decisions3 independent traders

A public trade is only a prompt to verify.

1 active event$3 daily loss budget$9 drawdown pause

Proposed limits. The $3 includes entry fees and an exit reserve. Trader history, account access and delayed entries still require verification.

Trader research Public wallets
RESEARCH ONLY / NOT PROVEN01 / OUR RESEARCH FOCUS

Follow the record.
Verify the signal.

Study slower, liquid markets through independent trader agreement. Provider rankings help discover wallets; they do not qualify them for copying.

90 days of history100 resolved decisions3 independent traders

Proposed screening rules. Complete history, concentration, drawdown and delayed-entry tests are still required. No trader is qualified yet.

$100 REFERENCE PILOT / PROPOSED LIMITS
$3All-in cost per event
1Active event at a time
$3Daily loss budget
$9Drawdown pause threshold

Entry fees and reserved exit costs count inside the $3. Keep the rest idle. No leverage, averaging down or five-minute markets.

Subtract realized losses and existing commitments from the remaining risk budget. Unknown cash, fees, depth or minimum order size means no entry. Limits are a plan, not connected live controls.

Review account access ↗
PUBLIC WALLET RESEARCH

Behavior, not promises.

Research a public address. Subscribing saves it to your watchlist.

CRYPTO · PROVIDER TABLE

MONTH · PNL

This is a Polymarket ranking, not our quality assessment. PnL does not prove repeatability or risk.

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MY LIST

FOLLOW ONLY

WALLET RESEARCH

NO TRADE COPYING
Select a trader or enter a public address
Other strategies 9 research hypotheses
DEFIGURU / STRATEGY LAB

Strategy Lab

Ten hypotheses share one review loop: data, costs, execution and risk. Two were queued for sandbox testing; the rest remain under observation.

LIVE GATE LOCKED/RESEARCH ONLY
10HYPOTHESESstrategy families
1RESEARCH FOCUSqueued for sandbox testing
4SECTORSCrypto · Politics · Economics · Tech
0LIVEexecution locked
STRATEGY REGISTER / 9 ALTERNATIVES

Hypothesis map

9 OTHER STRATEGIES
01RESEARCH

Passive market-making

Limit quotes and inventory control.

Crypto · TechRESEARCH
02RESEARCH

Range reversion

Reversion after a false breakout.

Crypto · TechRESEARCH
03RESEARCH

Event cluster

Consistency across linked event markets.

Politics · EconomicsCALIBRATE
04RESEARCH

News momentum

Price response to a fresh verified fact.

Crypto · TechLATENCY TEST
05RESEARCH

Probability distribution

Calibrated probability with a confidence interval.

All sectorsMODEL
06NO EDGE

Full-set / cross-outcome

Parity across both outcomes after all costs.

CryptoHOLD
07RESEARCH

Source discrepancy

Source discrepancy with repeated reconciliation.

All sectorsVERIFY
08RESEARCH

Extreme prices

Tail probabilities with rare-loss controls.

Politics · EconomicsTAIL RISK
10RESEARCH

Contrarian leader

A contrarian signal requires an independent forecast.

All sectorsHOLDOUT
30 calendar days · 200 independent events · 10 decision daysPROFITABILITY NOT PROVEN
Research journal & paper tools
SIMULATION — NOT LIVE CAPITALNo wallet or signature. All operations stay in the local journal.
RESEARCH EVIDENCE / 01

Profitability check

Collect observations and review virtual scenarios. Decisions rely on data, not a pretty chart.

PROFITABILITY NOT PROVEN

Auto-collection is off. It runs only while this section is open and stops on error.

Loading local journal…

REAL TRADING UNAVAILABLE

Snapshots are not trades. With no closed virtual trades, profitability is not calculated.

    Virtual results use journal records. Imports and local records do not verify data provenance or real profitability. Auto-collection saves snapshots only and creates no virtual trades.

    No snapshots yet.

    MARKET / SOURCECHECK RESULTSNAPSHOT TIME
    No observations yet

    The journal is stored separately from the virtual portfolio.

    Maximum 5,000 records and 3 MB. Collection stops when full; old records are not deleted. Download the journal before clearing browser data.

    MARKET DIVERGENCE

    USER SCENARIO / V1
    Select a market in the first section

    PAPER OPERATION

    DEPTH-AWARE

    SEARCH FOR EDGE

    FULL SET / V1

    Cost of both outcomes: depth + fees + reserve. A positive difference is a candidate, not a profit promise.

    Up to 12 binary crypto markets. No results before measurement.

    VIRTUAL PORTFOLIO

    EXPORT ↗

    DECISION LOG

    LOCAL STORAGE